Month: October 2014

The crackers, lamps and Diwali decoration sales start from zero, increases slowly and converts into almost a mad rush on the eve of Diwali. Bulk of the crackers is bought in the last 2-3 days of Diwali and none on the next day. How do you do the demand prediction of a product that is sold for only 3 days in a year? Not to mention that all unsold inventory has to be disposed of at a fraction of the price as there is no longer any market till the next year. Also the lead time for any item would be weeks/months, hence if you are stock out of did not guess the fashion correctly, you have no recourse. Most festival collection is sold to retailers on cash and carry (rather than credit) and there is no mitigation for unsold inventory.
Furthermore it rained on the Diwali night in Bangalore which means people were less eager to light crackers and the poor drainage in the streets means fewer footfalls of customers. A conventional shop would lower its prices so that it does not end up with unsold inventory. However seasoned sellers know that the buyers are here out of compulsion/family pressure. They will not have enough time to browse through the shop and would buy only the essentials. Hence it is best to raise the prices (earn the same amount per customer and compensate for the reduces sales)
Every merchant dreams of a hot-selling item, but it is a nightmare for festival retailers. Last thing they want is a shop that sells 100s of different kinds of crackers but their sparkles/fooljhadi is sold-out. Smart retailers need to work with their customers trying to influence them to buy a larger variety and manage a more evenly sales distribution. Since the entire sales happen in a few days, the bundling, pricing, placement decisions have to be taken in real-time.
Sometimes we get daunted by the complexity of simple business but we fail to realize that the shopkeeper who aces it often has not even completed his high school.

Countries like Iran, North Korea, Myanmar, Cuba, Syria and Sudan are labeled as sanctioned countries/rouge governments which are breeding ground of international terrorism. However I am beginning to question the very assumption that it needs state sponsorship to incubate and promote terrorism or technology/devices needed for it.
It will take $100/- (INR 6,000) for an individual  to make a crude bomb using an propane/LPG tank, radio control from DIY aircraft hobby kit/cellphone and some detonators fabricated from fireworks. A chat friend from Israel had lamented that it is Diwali for them every day as homemade Palestinian mortars and short range rockets light up the sky. Today crafted explosives kill more life then the much feared IEDs.
Wright brothers not US government made the first practical flight. First space flight was remote control. It does not need an Einstein to create an autonomous vehicle/flying object today. Almost all modern guns are made by individuals and named after them. Today Defense Distributed has proved that anybody can print 3D guns. The 2001 Anthrax attacks did not need any sophisticated pharmaceutical lab and were mostly created by individual. David Hahn created a breeder nuclear reactor in his backyard at the age of 17 using materials he could afford and source locally in USA. Ricin & mustard gas formulae is available to everybody and in the fictional TV series “Breaking Bad” a high-school professor could craft it at home/RV. Alfred Nobel in 19^th century created the stable explosive, but lost his brother in the production/testing. Today’s anarchist has much better access to raw materials and safer mechanism to test their prototype.
Somehow we have created a myth around the need or a soulless nation/fanatic organization is needed to fabricate WMD, armaments, chemical warfare, bio-warfare, nuclear; missile & submarine technology. What we forget are two things:
Firstly copying is a lot easier than original design. Most terror labs today only try to replicate on what has been developed and tested (with minor modifications). It is said that humans perfected the weapon technology in the 40s, nuclear technology in the 50s and aviation technology in the 60s.Individuals today are a lot smarter and resourceful and can reverse engineer and improvise with ease.
Secondly internet has made it a lot safer and easier for people to form special interest groups and collaborate and exchange ideas. Mankind has much better access to raw materials, literature & production technology then it had decades ago when these technology was getting developed.
I would ask the same question that I did in 2006. What would you do with an individual who has created a technology in an undesirable area (without any ideological fanatic or malicious intent)? Should we appreciate their genius or punish them for their audacity?

Normally I am not a big fan of Hindi movies. Often I find the entire story of a 3 hour Hindi Bollywood flick can be summarized in 3 minutes, but Raanjhanaa was a pleasant surprise. It is a very emotional, sad story of love across religion. Yet it surprisingly handles it in a very mature fashion, which is realistic and yet does not offend Hindus, Muslims (or both).
Life is complex and the humans in it even more. It is a love story about a hindu boy who is madly in love and a muslim girl who likes that boy (but as a friend). Unlike the typical No item songs, inappropriate scenes/dresses (but lot of curse words), or unnecessary gore.
Since the movie was released 18 months ago. I will talk about it with spoilers.
The worst part of the movie is the opening song in which Sonam Kapoor and Dhanush, both in their 30s or late 20s dress up as teens and think the world cannot tell the difference, but the movie recovers after that. It starts with a street urchin, Kundan (Dhanush), a son of a Varanasi Pandit (hindu priest) who is madly in love with Zoya, Sonam Kapoor, a daughter of a muslim professor. Sonam likes the attention but rejects his advances as she does not have feelings for him.
It has one of the best performances of Dhanush and a masterpiece script. The story shows him maturing subtly but dramatically from a carefree kid to a man filled with remorse and guilt. The way the movie portrays the complex human emotions is also remarkable.