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Monsoon Predictions

We all know 20% of Indian economy is dependent on monsoons (summer rains). Monsoon directly effect the agricultural income (and income of half a billion people living on it) and the industry. Everybody to FMCG to machine manufacturer see the rise and fall in consumption based on monsoon cycles.
No wonder, he who brings the rain (Indra) is considered to be the Kind of Gods.

To be able to predict the monsoons and guide the farmers to switch been water guzzling rice to those crops which do not require too much water, Indian Meteorological Department was founded by 1886… But like any other government department it is defunct. Its predictions are no better than the odds you get by throwing the dice. Yet the government does not allow any other private/independent to publish its predictions.

Government say we have an RTI (Right to Information), but its actions say otherwise. It allows fishermen to die due to a sea storm, rather than allow a local university to predict and give a timely warning?

Internationally monsoons is a multi-billion dollar industry which is financed by Weather Derivatives. The best scientists, mathematicians are employed to make the most accurate predictions. Most of the world’s supercomputers are solely dedicated to the task of crunching Meteorological data. Yet Indian government does not want its fishermen and farmers to benefit from it.

No Wonder there is no dedicated Weather TV Channel, even newspaper hide the weather forecasts in one unreadable corner of the newspaper.
Jai Control Raj!!

17 replies on “Monsoon Predictions”

There clearly is a law preventing trading in weather derivatives.. but as the Indian express reports (embedded link in the post) even predictions are banned. No wonder, in spite of the fact that every year meteorological department fails, I have never heard of a second opinion.

I just checked with a professor from a Oceanography and Meterology dept. of a University..looks like they are allowed to publish their readings as opinions.

But even their opinions shd be backed by readings and ‘models’.

They are not allowed to make official statements which translates to they cannot sell their findings .

//They are not allowed to make official statements //
thanks for confirming my half researched notion 🙂

//which translates to they cannot sell their findings .//
and that is a billion dollar industry… but Government does not want indians to be a part of it.

The professor himself said that there was def. a lot of confusion after the Tsunami when pvt. parties were releasing statements.
Unless there are strict restrictions , looks like it makes sense to have monopoly.

//a lot of confusion after the Tsunami when pvt. parties were releasing statements.//
each day a 100 astrologers/psychics and people who claim themselves to be Nostradamus release their predictions… has it ever cased any mayhem???
nehow any private player will have more than the 50% strike rate which government has.

//looks like it makes sense to have monopoly.//
give me one instance where it does….

If you want to make a real distinction between astrology and meteorology… why not allow “Weather Derivatives”? give researches an incentive to be right…

I wasnt talking about astrologers or psychics or godmen here , Pegasus..give me some credit.

And be assured that I wont make a comment on these matters without info from a proper source.

What the professor meant was some organisations like news agencies.. publishing
statements predicting Tsunami after the attack .And there was general chaos.

Apparently there are pvt. meterological pros (usually the retd. ones) who have expertise
in weather forecast and are paid by some agencies to get their opinion and publish them.
Even the Universities come under Ministry of Education are bound to inform the Govt. of their
findings.

#//looks like it makes sense to have monopoly.//
give me one instance where it does….#
Read the complete sentence
which is
//Unless there are strict restrictions ,
looks like it makes sense to have monopoly.//

Now tell me ur suggestions in privatising the dept., without regularising it. ?

// give researches an incentive to be right…//
as of now , the sophisticated ‘models’
are with the Govt. and the professionals
are Govt.employees. U mean to say
if they predict correctly ,give them a perk ?

//I wasnt talking about astrologers or psychics or godmen here ,//
our govt is 50% correct.. and if u flip a coin u r 50% correct.
don’t u see a relation?
Nostradamus was actually 80% correct is predicting almost all of the major historical events… and he had no mathematical models…
now tell me whom will I believe more?

// Pegasus..give me some credit.//
I thanked you immediately… and I will make sure the day I open up my bank 😉 , u will get get some credit 🙂 plz be patient.

//And be assured that I wont make a comment on these matters without info from a proper source.//
I know.. and that is why u would have seen my quoting from epw, economists and newspapers with much more authority that i can ever have.

//What the professor meant was some organisations like news agencies.. publishing
statements predicting Tsunami after the attack .And there was general chaos.//
again do u think contradictory pre-poll predictions, stock market tips, or my even grandma’s prediction of rain by smell will ever cause confusion????
people believe what they want and disregard what they don’t…. we are known to bury those who wolf unnecessarily, without any govt intervention.
we are often more intelligent than what governments think we are… and so I am just requesting government not to subject me to its own propaganda….

PS: reference to BBC Weather channel during WW2… deliberately fudging predictions to synchronize agents.

// Apparently there are pvt. meterological pros (usually the retd. ones) who have expertise
in weather forecast and are paid by some agencies to get their opinion and publish them.
Even the Universities come under Ministry of Education are bound to inform the Govt. of their
findings.//
give 10 guys a same set of data… and they will come up with 10 different inferences…
2 detectives at the same crime scene will have 2 different opinions….
what I am saying it to encourage a little bit of competition so that both are cocksure about what they utter.

//Unless there are strict restrictions ,
looks like it makes sense to have monopoly.//
u sound like that communist who preached me against “laissez faire”

//Now tell me ur suggestions in privatising the dept., without regularising it. ?//
all way along I was talking about competition… government, local university, international players, and a few home grown private operators…
and trust me your oceanographic professor will know his local coastal environment much better than some dude in Delhi.

//as of now , the sophisticated ‘models’
are with the Govt. and the professionals
are Govt.employees. //
don’t tell me u believe the that government tells you the truth? even if by chance it is able to find it out before you do…

//U mean to say if they predict correctly ,give them a perk ?//
will cover weather derivatives in a separate post.

//Nostradamus was actually 80% correct is predicting almost all of the major historical events… and he had no mathematical models…//
I dont want to trust that guy either..
I can show some other example where
ppl take us by surprise..but I wont go
by that.

//I thanked you immediately//
I dont mean this..
//I will make sure the day I open up my bank , u will get get some credit plz be patient.//
this is more like it….and I will look
forward to it 🙂

//grandma’s prediction of rain by smell
will ever cause confusion????//
we are talking about a mere weather forecast
here , Pegasus…this was after the Tsunami
and ppl were running helter skelter.
why wld’nt they want to believe a popular
local daily ?

//what I am saying it to encourage a little bit of competition so that both are cocksure
about what they utter.//
what if they differ? whom do u follow ?

//u sound like that communist who preached
me against “laissez faire”//
‘laissez faire’ in a developing country is not
a good option , Pegasus. What we needed
was mixed economy…maybe now after these
60 yrs , we can move towards ‘laissez faire’
and that is what is happening.

//and trust me your oceanographic professor
will know his local coastal environment
much better than some dude in Delhi.//
yeah..and they are the ones who predict that
area and send reports .
If that is the argument , Pegasus..our fishermen can predict the sea by just testing its waters.

//don’t tell me u believe the that government
tells you the truth? even if by chance it is able to find it out before you do…//
I have lost u here . why wld the Govt. want
to keep this info a secret ?

One another thing…I am not supporting the
Govt. and its ways…I wonder whether an
alternative arrangement is feasible in a country like ours. I doubt if the market is big enough for multiple players .

//will cover weather derivatives in a separate
post.//
ok.

//I dont want to trust that guy (Nostradamus ) either..//
I am myself a man of science… so unless someone gives me a theory or a concrete evidence… i disregard their predictions…
this reference was just to say how much faith I have on my weather man

//we are talking about a mere weather forecast
here , Pegasus…this was after the Tsunami
and ppl were running helter skelter.
why wld’nt they want to believe a popular
local daily ?//
agreed dear… those were extra ordinary times… but at times of peace like today…. won’t you like to have a second opinion?

//what if they differ? whom do u follow ?//
that is what will happen when there is competition… but over time you could predict a pattern…. agency A is 60% correct, and agent B is 70% correct. and since these theories are not cast in stone… we take it with a pinch of salt…. sometimes ounces of them…. just think how the world will look is everybody has the same opinion about everything….

//‘laissez faire’ in a developing country is not
a good option , Pegasus. What we needed
was mixed economy…maybe now after these
60 yrs , we can move towards ‘laissez faire’
and that is what is happening.//
that is a religious war.. we will pick it up next time we go on a crusade.

//yeah..and they are the ones who predict that
area and send reports .//
won’t he love the idea of a news flash…. even though the cloud was clear Prof X correctly predicted the storm and saved n number of lives. and that is all I am fighting for.

//If that is the argument , Pegasus..our fishermen can predict the sea by just testing its waters.//
yes and that kept them alive… they would be long gone if they blindly believed in one agency.

#//don’t tell me u believe the that government
tells you the truth? even if by chance it is able to find it out before you do…//
I have lost u here . why wld the Govt. want
to keep this info a secret ?#
Havn’t u heard of the word propaganda…. where the government tells you something… while the truth is something else….. these are few of the merits of living in a monopolistic society.

//One another thing…I am not supporting the
Govt. and its ways…//
finally 🙂

//I wonder whether an alternative arrangement is feasible in a country like ours. I doubt if the market is big enough for multiple players .//
whats the harm in giving them allowing them to operate…. it does not cost them a dime …infact they can charge them millions for license, sharing of satellite and other data.

The sole purpose of this section of the blog is to open one’s mind to possibilities which they never knew existed…. make them aware of things that matter them the most.

//I am myself a man of science… so unless someone gives me a theory or a concrete evidence… i disregard their predictions…//
Its such a relief to hear that 🙂

//agreed dear… those were extra ordinary times…
but at times of peace like today….
won’t you like to have a second opinion?//

//but over time you could predict a pattern….
agency A is 60% correct,
and agent B is 70% correct//

So , I have a second opinion and then keep
studying the opinions , look for patterns
and go by it ….hmm…
is there any way u can give me just one
correct prediction ?

//that is a religious war..
we will pick it up next time we go on a crusade//
forewarned is forarmed (now I was’nt talking
of the weather here 🙂 )

//even though the cloud was clear Prof X correctly predicted the storm and saved n number of lives and that is all I am fighting for.//
oh ! ok .

#//One another thing…I am not supporting the
Govt. and its ways…//
finally #
No..from the very begining I thgt I was with
u on this…I was only stating facts about what is going on with the dept.

//whats the harm in giving them allowing
them to operate…. it does not cost them a dime …infact they can charge them millions for license, sharing of satellite and other data. //
Now comes the tricky part.
Well..from what I heard , they are very apprehensive about the pvt. players . Its obviously done for protecting the interest of the ppl.
But , as u said…I dont see any reason why
it shd not be given a try .

(do u think they’d be skeptical to allow this
as this may turn out like the 24% to 32% interest granting finance companies racket ? ) Not sure.

//The sole purpose of this section of the blog is to open one’s mind to possibilities which they never knew existed…. make them aware of things that matter them the most.//
It did to me 🙂 as I learnt what ‘Weather derivatives’is all about 🙂

//So , I have a second opinion and then keep
studying the opinions , look for patterns
and go by it ….hmm…
is there any way u can give me just one
correct prediction ?//
why do you want to be spoon fed or want others take a decision for u… u talk to 10 doctors.. they will have 10 treatments… you go with what suits you.
and deep inside u know atleast 1 .. if not all are doing a wrong diagnosis.

//forewarned is forarmed (now I was’nt talking of the weather here 🙂 )//
I am going underground. =))

//Well..from what I heard , they are very apprehensive about the pvt. players .//
again….control raj… read my post on indian postal department.

//(do u think they’d be skeptical to allow this
as this may turn out like the 24% to 32% interest granting finance companies racket ? ) Not sure.//
nobody forces you to take those loans….
a fool and his money soon part ways…. a credit card only hastens it.

//I learnt what ‘Weather derivatives’is all about :)//
🙂 it was my pleasure. all storms start with small ripples.

//why do you want to be spoon fed
or want others take a decision for u//
Back to sq. one…why else wld I need
whether forecast..if not for spoon-feeding me ?

//I am going underground. =))//
Poor little moles :)) Have some pity, Pegasus =)) or better still…stay there :))

//read my post on indian postal department.//
fed up with both the postal dept.
and the courier services 🙁 But will read the
post.

//as this may turn out like the
24% to 32% interest granting finance companies
racket ? ) Not sure.//
nobody forces you to take those loans….
a fool and his money soon part ways….
a credit card only hastens it.//

Actually they are deposits by the public with
pvt finance companies in the lure of high interests.
After all the excitement , the Govt. had to intervene and appoint liquidators to bring about some order in the repayment .
Nobody forced them to fall for this crap..and that is why they did not sue anyone except the fraudulent companies .

//a fool and his money soon part ways…. //
exactly …why else wld some invest in teak plantations ?

//all storms start with small ripples//
and some calms down to gentle ripples 🙂

//Back to sq. one…why else wld I need
whether forecast..if not for spoon-feeding me ?//
after all its all hypothesis… it is not an accurate science.

//fed up with both the postal dept.
and the courier services 🙁 But will read the
post.//
looks like they misplaced your love letters 😉

//Actually they are deposits by the public with
pvt finance companies in the lure of high interests.
After all the excitement , the Govt. had to intervene and appoint liquidators to bring about some order in the repayment .
Nobody forced them to fall for this crap..and that is why they did not sue anyone except the fraudulent companies .//
Actually RBI has done a good job… there as not been a single major bank failure… leading to rest of the banks falling as dominoes.

//exactly …why else wld some invest in teak plantations ?//
http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_RGVPDNT (requires subscription)
almost all High profile US universities have a considerable exposure to timber futures.

#//all storms start with small ripples//
and some calms down to gentle ripples :)#
nothing is certain

//after all its all hypothesis…
it is not an accurate science.//
exactly 🙂

#//fed up with both the postal dept.
and the courier services But will read the
post.//
looks like they misplaced your
love letters #
Trust me ..I wld’nt convey such an
an important message in such a
mundane way 😛 :))

//almost all High profile US universities
have a considerable exposure to
timber futures.//
Is it the same as investing in some saplings
in some godforsaken desert ?
Anyways..I dont know this first hand.

//and some calms down to gentle ripples :)#
nothing is certain//
yeah..just what I said in ur ‘mommy test’ post 🙂

//Is it the same as investing in some saplings
in some godforsaken desert ?//
no, they should be much more intelligent than that.
but as Warren Buffet once said… “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. so only the time will tell.

//yeah..just what I said in ur ‘mommy test’ post :)//
golden words are meant to be repeated

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